MARCIE HEACOX 2006 TRIPLE CROWN NOTEBOOK

 Final Say On Southern California Contenders

May 4, 2006

In order of preference, By Marcie Heacox

Brother Derek

            Brother Derek has a presence like no other. He has “the eye”, arches his neck in the paddock and post parade - all concentration. He has been calm beyond his years in front of all crowds this year, including the estimated 54,000 on Santa Anita Derby day. And on top of that, he moves over the track with such ease. In the mornings he has been going in strong 1 to 2 mile gallops, deceiving some bystanders into thinking he was attempting a timed workout. The exception to his impressive morning form was his second-to-last Derby tune-up, a 7 furlong paired workout. He looked uncomfortable before, during, and after the work, in which he never attempted to catch his workmate, Littlebitofzip, and made irregular breathing sounds. His most recent work was a redeeming 4 furlong breeze in 49:2 over a muddy track at Churchill Downs. Trainer Dan Hendricks has him peaked for May 6th.

            His racing performances have been spectacular. He is undefeated around two turns, and it seems like the 1 1/4 mile distance will be no problem. His drawbacks are the small fields he has been running against and the ominous post position 18. Jockey Alex Solis is confident he will rate. In his maiden, he fell back to be second-to-last and closed through the stretch to win, and in the Santa Catalina (gr. II), he tracked the two leaders before taking the lead in the backstretch. The California derby crop this year appears very strong, and he has defeated each and every one of them that he has faced before in his impressive Southern California streak.

            If you’re superstitious, you can’t help but like that owner Cecil Peacock’s silks display the NBC peacock, coincidentally the symbol of the Kentucky Derby’s official network. Also, Brother Derek eats too many carrots to not see the other horses coming! 

Bob And John

            Bob And John has the ability to claim graded stakes wins on both coasts, the Sham Stakes (gr. III) at Santa Anita in February and the Wood Memorial (gr. I) at Aqueduct in April. He has a pair of third-place finishes in the Hollywood Futurity (gr. I) and San Felipe (gr. II), where he lost to Brother Derek, and A.P. Warrior and Point Determined. His running style has been a bit one-paced. His positives include a win over an off track in the Wood, and consistency against the best. With a speedy pace predicted for the Kentucky Derby, he will likely be mid-pack or even farther back.

            Bob And John has no particular spark about him, but he has been working splendidly, and his trainer Bob Baffert is high on him. By shipping to the Wood, he proved to his white-haired trainer that he can handle shipping well. It speaks volumes that hot stakes jockey Garrett Gomez chose this colt to ride. This lanky dark bay/brown son of Seeking the Gold looks the part of a router, and has the pedigree to back it. Bob And John is named after owner Bob McNair and his racing manager John Adger.

A.P. Warrior

            A.P. Warrior was a victim of chasing Brother Derek in the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I). He tired and lost second to Point Determined in mid-stretch. Previously he led wire to wire in the San Felipe (gr. II), with a determined stretch run to hold off Point Determined. Note that he has lost to Brother Derek in all three races against him. His natural running style seems to be closer to stalking or running mid-pack, so jockey Corey Nakatani plans to sit a considerable ways back from the expected hot pace in the Derby. Trainer John Shirreffs knows how to get a horse to peak on the first Saturday in May, winning last year with Giacomo, and owner Stan Fulton is due for a big win.

            A.P. Warrior has proven to be a handful before, once dumping his rider in the walk to the post, but prior to his most recent start he was calm, cool, and collected. He has kind eyes and a great pedigree. This bay son of 1992 Belmont Stakes winner A.P. Indy commanded an auction price of $1.3 million. He has reportedly looked impressive in the mornings at Churchill, and has been working quickly.

Sinister Minister

            If you’re looking for a successor to War Emblem, Sinister Minister could be your man. This dark bay/brown son of Old Trieste is as speed ball as they come. In his most recent start, he took the lead and never looked back in the Bluegrass Stakes (gr. I) at Keeneland. While widening to a win margin of 12 3/4 lengths down the stretch, though, he was drifting in and out - the look of a tired horse. His trainer Bob Baffert even said he was weary after the race.

            Prior to that upset win, Sinister Minister had two bad races in California, including a misplaced sprint effort against Too Much Bling in the San Vicente (gr. II) and a rough, rail-bumping trip in the California Derby (ungraded) against Cause To Believe. He will be ridden by Victor Espinoza, and is owned by Lanni Family Trust, Mercedes Stable & Schiappa. Poker magnate Ernie Moody (Mercedes Stable), was offered a part interest in Sinister Minister by his gambling friend, and agreed to go along for the ride. All along, the owners’ major goal was to win the Bluegrass Stakes (gr. I), but now they’ll make their biggest gamble in the biggest of them all, the Kentucky Derby.

Point Determined

            This is the wise guy horse of this year, so his odds will probably be much lower than they should be. The most this bay colt has going for him in his distinguished pedigree. His sire is superstar Point Given, who won the 2001 Preakness and Belmont Stakes. His dam is a stamina influence as well, as she is a stakes-winning daughter of Broad Brush. Point Determined was bought for $750,000 at the 2005 Barretts March Sale, the same sale that Brother Derek was bought at.

            Point Determined has done okay on paper, from losing two allowances to placing second in two stakes races, the San Felipe (gr. II) and Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) most recently. He has been improving in each start, but it can be an illusion of how much late ground he made up in his last, because Brother Derek was pulled up almost to a canter before the finish line. His off the pace style is a big plus in this year’s Derby, though. This muscular colt does not give off much of a presence, as he often holds his head low. Trainer Bob Baffert describes him as a lazy horse who reminds him of his own dual-classic winner Silver Charm, but he was impressive in his last work with a stablemate. Beverly Lewis, widow of the late, great Bob Lewis, owns Point Determined, and Rafael Bejarano will ride.